Every parent who has sat across from a school nurse and been told their child's exemption is no longer valid knows what's at stake on Tuesday. California's House races will help decide whether parents or the state make medical decisions for our kids. And several of them are close enough that our community can decide the outcome.
The U.S. House is running on a razor-thin margin: 218 Republicans to 212 Democrats, with one independent and four vacancies. A handful of California seats could tip control either way. Under Secretary Kennedy, HHS has a real chance to restore informed consent and medical freedom. That progress stalls if Congress fills with candidates who want more mandates, not fewer.
The 6% who can win this
Our health freedom base is strong. But in several competitive districts, roughly 6% of voters who share our values are on the sidelines. Some are disillusioned with politics. Some only vote in presidential years. That 6% is our margin of victory, and reaching them is the work of these last few days.
Where the lines fall this year
Health freedom is not a partisan issue, and it shouldn't be. But in these specific races, the candidates defending parental choice and medical exemptions happen to be Republicans or independents, and the ones who wrote or voted for California's exemption crackdown are Democrats. That could change in future cycles. Our loyalty is to children and families, not to a party.
Tier 1: Winnable races with clear champions
CA-6: Kevin Kiley (I) vs. Dr. Richard Pan (D). This is the clearest health freedom contrast in the state. Richard Pan authored SB 277, which ended California's personal belief exemption, and SB 276, which handed medical exemptions to state oversight. Kevin Kiley voted against SB 276 and fought Governor Newsom's use of emergency powers. The September Bullfinch Group poll of 927 likely voters had it Kiley 36.5%, Pan 36.7%, with 26.7% undecided — a dead heat, down from Pan +4 in July. The district leans D+5, but Kiley is running as an independent and can outperform it. Poll · Forecast · Cook rating
CA-22: David Valadao (R) vs. Randy Villegas (D). Valadao opposed the Biden federal COVID-19 vaccine mandate, saying vaccination is a personal health decision Washington should not force. Villegas has taken no position on mandates or exemptions. The latest USC poll shows Villegas 54%, Valadao 44%; the polling average is Villegas +8.5. In a D+1 district rated Toss Up, our disengaged 6% could swing it. Poll · Forecast · Cook rating
CA-48: Jim Desmond (R) vs. Marni von Wilpert (D). As a San Diego County supervisor, Desmond voted against requiring vaccination for new county hires. Von Wilpert sat on a city council that adopted an employee mandate and later credited its results. USC has von Wilpert 52%, Desmond 44%; the average is von Wilpert +5.4 in a D+2, Lean Democratic district. Poll · Forecast · Cook rating
Senator Kiley
Senator Pan
Tier 2: Tougher fights with principled champions
CA-1: James Gallagher (R) vs. Mike McGuire (D). Gallagher voted against both SB 277 and SB 276. McGuire voted for both. USC has McGuire 56%, Gallagher 41% in a D+7 district. Gallagher never wavered when our families needed him, and he deserves our full support. Poll · Forecast
CA-26: Pastor Sam Gallucci (R) vs. Jacqui Irwin (D). An open seat after Rep. Julia Brownley's retirement, right here in Ventura County. Gallucci has said plainly that government should not make vaccines mandatory. Irwin voted for SB 277 and SB 276. More on this race in our next post.
Tier 3: Races where we need answers
CA-13: Adam Gray (D) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R). Gray's record is mixed: he voted for SB 277 but against SB 276. Lincoln's positions are unclear. Forecast: Gray 55.5%, Lincoln 44.5%. Forecast
CA-45: Derek Tran (D) vs. Chuong Vo (R). Tran opposed Secretary Kennedy's confirmation, but neither candidate has a clear record on mandates or exemptions. Ask them directly.
CA-21: Jim Costa (D) vs. Kyle Kirkland (R). Neither candidate has stated specific positions. Costa's federal voting record on mandates deserves a close look.
What Prop 50 changed
Proposition 50's new map pushed several of our champions into more Democratic-leaning districts and paired two Republican incumbents against each other in CA-40. It made our work harder. It did not take away our chance.
What to do before Tuesday
Vote, and make sure every health freedom voter in your household has returned their ballot.
Call three friends in CA-6, CA-22, or CA-48. Those are the races where a few thousand votes decide it.
Share this guide with the parents in your homeschool group, your church, and your kids' sports teams.
Ask candidates in Tier 3 races where they stand, and post their answers.
We have the candidates, we have the issues, and we have the families. Now we need the turnout. Let's protect our children's freedoms for years to come.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Ballots must be postmarked by Election Day or dropped off by 8 p.m.
